Excel’ing in assumptions

Modelling

What do you do, when you are a big fan of Assumptions Mapping as brought forward to David J Bland of Precoil, but you are not into doing a lot of Post It’s on a wall? You of course build an Excel model for it.

I have been using Assumptions Mapping for a couple of years now, but I have always struggled to use it in fx a workshop setting, because the concept with the quadrant, identifying knowledge gaps etc is foreign to many people. My experience is that it often goes much better if you just have a conversation, ask questions and plot down the answers.

So, I build a model in Excel that does exactly that. It lets you ask all the questions, make notes and score each answer based on the degree you have hard data on it and its criticality to the overall project. Once scores, the model will build a scatter chart with the correct labels, and in an instant you will have a visualization, you can work from. Cool, huh?

(Illustration: Visualisering fra modellen)

Critical certainty

Testing

Uncertainty seems the only constant when you’re working with innovation and trying to build a viable business. And there is good reason to support the argument that the more successful you are, the more you tend to be surrounded by uncertainty.

You can not – and shall not pursue – total certainty at any point in time, because doing so will slow you down and get you bogged down in process.

What you can however do is try to identify the factors most critical to success in your business and work towards getting to more certainty in those particular areas and use the insight to really rocket-fuel your success.

(Photo: Pixabay.com)